Bankroll management: flat stake vs Kelly vs percentage
Bankroll management does not turn a bad strategy into a good one, but it decides how much damage losing runs do. These are the three most used methods, with numbers.
What a bankroll is
Your bankroll is the money you set aside exclusively for betting, separate from your expenses and savings. The first rule is the most important: it must be money you can afford to lose completely. If losing it would be a problem for you, that money should not be in the bankroll.
Why you need a method
Losing runs are normal, even with a good strategy. At odds of 2.00 with a 50% hit rate, over 1,000 bets there is close to a 40% chance of losing at least 10 in a row. If each bet were 10% of your bank, that run would leave you with almost nothing. With a small stake, it is a bad moment you can get through.
Method 1: flat stake
You always stake the same amount, for example 1% of your starting bank. With €1,000, that is €10 per bet.
- For: it is simple, easy to record and makes yield very easy to interpret. It also curbs the temptation to raise your stake after a bad run.
- Against: it does not adapt. If your bank halves, that €10 becomes 2% of the bank, and your risk has doubled without you deciding it.
Method 2: percentage stake
You stake a fixed percentage of your current bank, for example 1%. With €1,000 you stake €10; with €800, €8.
- For: it adjusts itself. After a losing run you reduce the amount, which slows the losses. And in theory you never reach zero.
- Against: you have to keep recalculating. Recovering also takes longer, because you stake less right after losing.
With 10 straight losses at a 1% stake: flat leaves you with €900, and percentage with about €904. The difference is small on a short run and much larger on a long one.
Method 3: Kelly
The stake depends on the edge you estimate for each bet. More edge, more stake; no edge, nothing. You can work it out with the Kelly calculator.
- For: in theory it maximises long-term growth.
- Against: it depends entirely on a probability you are estimating. If you overestimate, you overbet. That is why 1/4 or 1/2 Kelly is common.
Example: odds of 2.10, estimated probability of 50%, €1,000 bank. Full Kelly gives €45.45, and quarter Kelly, €11.36. If the true probability were 45%, there would be no edge at all and any stake would be too much.
Comparison
| Flat stake | Percentage | Fractional Kelly | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Difficulty | Low | Medium | High |
| Adapts to the bank | No | Yes | Yes |
| Needs probability estimates | No | No | Yes |
| Risk if you estimate badly | Not applicable | Not applicable | High |
| Who it usually suits | Nearly everyone at the start | Those who want automatic adjustment | Those who measure probabilities with data |
There is no universal winner. If you have no data showing you estimate well, the most prudent option is one of the first two with a small stake: between 0.5% and 2% is a common reference, not a rule.
Mistakes that ruin any method
- Raising your stake to recover. It is the clearest sign of tilt.
- Topping up the bank after every loss. If you do that, in practice you have no limit.
- Guessing your average stake. Many people believe they bet €10 and, on checking the data, their average is €25.
- Combining highly correlated bets. Several bets on the same match can all lose together.
- Confusing management with edge. No method makes a strategy with a negative yield profitable. It only changes how fast you lose.
How to check what you really do
The gap between what you think you stake and what you actually stake is often a surprise. To track it by hand there is the free Excel template; to see it automatically, import your history into BetTracker Pro and review your average stake, your streaks and how your bank evolves.
And if betting stops being entertainment, stop. Asking for help is the best bankroll management there is.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of my bankroll should I bet?
There is no right figure for everyone. Many bettors use between 0.5% and 2% per bet because it withstands long runs, but it depends on your average odds and your risk tolerance.
Which method is best to start with?
Flat stake. It is the easiest to follow and leaves clean data for finding out, later on, whether you have any edge.
How much money do I need to start?
Only what you can afford to lose entirely without it affecting your life. No figure is required, and not betting is also a perfectly valid option.